AURA Ecommerce OS Advanced module • Retention

LTV & Churn Predictor

Always-on LTV and churn risk models for your customers and cohorts. AURA ingests your data and outputs actionable retention playbooks so you stop reacting to churn and start predicting it.

Predictive LTV & churn scoring Cohorts • RFM • lifecycle stages Best for £100k+/mo or subscription-style brands
Book this system → Back to all systems ↓

Instead of staring at static dashboards, AURA turns your order, marketing and CRM data into live “who’s at risk” lists and LTV forecasts tied directly to campaigns and offers.

What this system does

From gut-feel retention to predictive LTV and churn

Most brands guess which customers to “treat as VIP” or “save from churning”. AURA builds proper LTV & churn models that score every customer and cohort, then pipes that intelligence straight into your marketing stack.

  • Scores every customer on predicted future revenue and churn probability.
  • Builds cohorts (VIP, loyal, at-risk, new, lapsing) you can target in one click.
  • Highlights the exact segments worth extra budget or better offers.
  • Tracks retention KPIs over time so you can see if campaigns actually move the curve.
No more “spray and pray” discounts Retention spend goes where models say it matters

Where it sits in your stack

LTV & Churn Predictor doesn’t replace your ESP, CRM or BI – it’s the brain that decides who goes into which flow and how heavy you go on offers and creative.

  • Inputs: order history, subscriptions, refunds, email & SMS engagement, ad touchpoints.
  • Connects to: Klaviyo, HubSpot, Customer.io, Meta, Google, your data warehouse.
  • Outputs to: live segments, tags, campaign lists and dashboards your team already uses.
  • Pairs perfectly with Operations AI Assistant and Analytics & Reporting Engine.
Shopify • Woo • Recharge • native subs Works with spreadsheet-only setups too
Who it’s for & what we build

Ideal for brands that…

  • Have a solid repeat base but don’t know which customers actually drive profit.
  • Run subscriptions, bundles or replenishment products and care about churn curves.
  • Spend real money on paid, email or SMS and want to tighten targeting.
  • Are tired of generic “VIP” lists that treat everyone over 2 orders the same.

If you’re earlier stage, we can still deploy this – we’ll just tune models to the data volume you have and focus on simple, high-impact segments first.

What we set up for you

  • LTV and churn models wired into your actual data (not demo dashboards).
  • Lifecycle cohorts (new, active, VIP, at-risk, lapsed) synced to your ESP and ad platforms.
  • Retention “playbooks” mapped to each cohort: save offers, VIP treatment, winback flows.
  • Reporting that shows retention, repeat rate and LTV by cohort and experiment.
  • Optionally: a simple “retention command centre” view inside your Analytics setup.
Inputs & outputs

Inputs we need from you

  • Order history (ideally 6–12+ months), including refunds and discounts.
  • Email/SMS engagement data (opens, clicks, unsubscribes) or CRM activity.
  • Subscription data if applicable: plan, term, pause/cancel events.
  • Any existing segments you care about (VIP, wholesale, staff, etc.).
  • Rough economics: gross margin bands, CAC benchmarks, payback targets.

Outputs you get every cycle

  • Updated LTV & churn scores at customer and cohort level.
  • Refreshed segments for VIP, at-risk, lapsing and high-potential customers.
  • Simple briefs: “Here’s who to hit, with what, and roughly what it’s worth.”
  • Trendlines for retention rate, repeat order rate and LTV over time.
  • Optional leadership summary: “Here’s how much LTV and margin we unlocked.”
Example workflow

How a typical LTV & Churn Predictor cycle runs

  1. You connect Shopify (or your store), ESP/CRM and ad accounts to AURA.
  2. AURA ingests history, builds baseline cohorts and trains LTV & churn models.
  3. The system scores each customer and cohort, then syncs segments and tags to your tools.
  4. Your retention and performance teams plug those segments into campaigns and flows.
  5. AURA watches changes in retention, repeat rate and LTV and flags what’s working.
  6. We iterate on cohort definitions, offers and timings based on real uplift – not vibes.

Over time this becomes your always-on retention radar – a system that quietly scores customers, feeds your tools, and shows you where keeping one more cohort engaged actually moves revenue.

FAQ
Do we need a huge amount of data for this to work?
Not necessarily. More data makes models sharper, but we can start with a few thousand customers and at least two to three purchase cycles. We’ll scope the sophistication of the models to the data you have now and evolve them as you grow.
Which tools does this integrate with?
We commonly plug into Shopify, Klaviyo, HubSpot, Customer.io, Meta, Google Ads and basic warehouses. If you’re mostly in spreadsheets, we can still deliver segments and scores back as CSVs or Sheets for your team to use.
Can we trust the predictions enough to change spend?
We don’t ask you to “just trust the model”. We set up simple A/B or holdout tests so you can see how targeted cohorts perform vs. business as usual, then gradually scale up as the uplift becomes clear.
How does this work with your other systems?
LTV & Churn Predictor pairs naturally with the Analytics & Reporting Engine, Operations AI Assistant and any of the performance systems touching email, SMS or ads. It gives those systems a smarter signal about who to target and how hard.
Want to know who’s about to churn before they disappear?
We’ll wire LTV & Churn Predictor into your stack, run the first cycles and show you where to focus retention spend – then decide together if it should stay as a permanent part of your AURA OS.
Request LTV & churn setup → Browse other systems ↓